优乐娱乐平台
其他国家 地区网站

习奥会与中美军事关系下一步走势

迈克尔奥汉隆 美国布鲁金斯学会外交政策研究部主任  2015年01月12日

【摘要】 中美两国已经达成的信息技术产品、签证程序以及气候变化方面的协定是非常有意义的,但未来在军事领域还有许多可以继续进展。在建立信任措施领域还有许多要做,至少需要说服中国它必须接受现在美国在西太平洋地区的军事存在。中国还有许多事情要做以更好地应对网络安全议题。外太空领域需要某种形式的军备控制已建立彼此信任。在军事现代化和国防预算方面,中美两国都需要找到某种方式展现克制,防止出现安全困境和军备竞赛。


奥巴马在北京度过的三天是非常有意义的三天。现在仍然不确定中国国家主席习近平和日本首相安倍晋三之间的会谈能否为两国关系接近,但是中美两国达成的诸多协定看来在某种程度上是非常积极的。

有关信息技术产品和签证程序上两国达成的协议将为全球经济带来巨大的好处(两国还在努力达成更有意义的协议,北京和华盛顿仍然就一些细节进行讨价还价)。共同减少二氧化碳排放以及分享气候变化技术的合作将极大地有助于两国共同应对气候变化。

同样重要的是两国几乎已经达成的军事协定。这两份协定放在一起将有助于极大地减少安全领域的风险。军事领域的风险将会威胁到两国整体关系。

两国即将达成的协议将包括军舰和军机在国际公海和国际公共空域的近距离接近以及大型的军事行动,包括军事演习。两军的军事热线将在操作层面助力信息分享。理想状态下,关于军舰和军机的协定不仅包括军用船只,同时也包括海监船只、渔船、商业飞机以及几乎任何飞机和船只。中国已经对美国的抵近侦察感到厌烦(尽管这样的侦查是在12海里的领海以外,国际社会广泛认为是符合国际法的),并且经常干扰美国军方在这一地区的安全作业。理想状态下,即将达成的协定将减少这样的行为。

这些措施都是我和斯坦伯格在我们共同撰写的《战略再保证和决心:21世纪的中美关系》一书中所提到的。这些措施都属于建立信任以及操作安全领域的措施。其它重要的环节包含军事现代化、海外军事基地以及战略议题(包括网络、外太空、导弹、导弹防御以及核问题等)

奥巴马和习近平的团队应该为这样成功的峰会感到自豪。不过如果我们将这样的协定放在一个更加广泛的框架下考虑,那么我们还应该看到还有多少事情需要去做。在建立信任措施领域还有许多要做,至少需要说服中国它必须接受现在美国在西太平洋地区的军事存在,美国对此有长远的利益,也有亲密的盟友。华盛顿可以做更多帮助中国在互利的基础上在某种形式的监督和建立信任措施的基础上进入美国的领空,例如提议一个“开放空域”条约。

中国还有许多事情要做以更好地应对网络安全议题。外太空领域需要某种形式的军备控制已建立彼此信任。在军事现代化和国防预算方面,中美两国都需要找到某种方式展现克制,防止出现安全困境和军备竞赛。中国需要考虑放缓国防建设的步伐,降低对台湾的导弹威胁。美国需要重新考虑海空一体战这一概念中具有威胁性的部分。

但总体上,此次峰会是两国关系中重要的一步。


 

 

The U.S.-China Deals: What Comes Next?

 

Michael E. O'Hanlon

 

It is turning out to be quite a three days in Beijing. It’s not certain whether the meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Chinese President Xi Jinping will herald a de-icing of bilateral relations, but the steps occurring between the U.S. and China seem positive–at least to a degree.

 

New deals on trade in electronic products and visa procedures promise a global economic boost. (Bigger trade deals are being pursued in a somewhat competitive fashion as Washington and Beijing seek their own frameworks.) Plans to curb greenhouse-gas emissions and a deal accelerating the sharing of climate-friendly technologies could boost the effort to address global climate change.

 

Potentially as important are two military accords reportedly near completion that, taken together, could substantially reduce risks in the security sphere that could threaten the entire relationship.

 

The two prospective agreements would apparently cover close approaches involving vessels and aircraft on the high seas and in international airspace, as well as large-scale military maneuvers, including exercises. Military-to-military hotlines at the operational level would be created to facilitate information exchanges. Ideally, the agreement on vessels and aircraft would involve not just naval ships but also Coast Guard fleets, fishing boats, commercial aircraft, and virtually all other ships or planes. China, tired of U.S. reconnaissance operations near its coasts (albeit beyond the 12-mile territorial limit widely recognized in international law), has occasionally interfered with the safe operations of U.S. military assets in the region. Ideally, forthcoming accords would dramatically reduce such behavior.

 

These measures are among the two dozen that Jim Steinberg and I proposed in our book, “Strategic Reassurance and Resolve: U.S.-China Relations in the 21st Century.” They fall under confidence-building and operational safety issues. Other key categories cover military modernization, overseas basing, and strategic issues (which include cyber, space, missile, missile defense, and nuclear matters).

 

The Obama and Xi teams should be proud of a good summit. But situating these accords in a broader framework underscores how much work remains to be done. Within the confidence-building realm there is more to do, partly to convince China that it must accept the ongoing presence of U.S. military assets in the western Pacific, where the U.S. has enduring interests and close allies. Washington could do more to help, including proposing an “open skies” treaty–modeled on the NATO-Warsaw Pact accord–that would give China some reciprocal access to U.S. airspace for certain forms of monitoring and confidence-building operations.

 

More needs to be done to address cyber issues, largely by China. Space operations offer opportunities for arms control that could help build confidence as well. And on military modernization and defense budget issues, both sides need to look for opportunities to show restraint to help avoid a security dilemma and an arms race. China needs to think about moderating the pace of its general defense buildup and its missile threats to Taiwan; the United States needs to rethink some of the more potentially threatening aspects of its Air-Sea Battle concept.

 

But on balance, this summit is fostering a step forward.


 

 


 
上一篇:APEC会议与亚太经济领导权转移
下一篇:中美新签证政策的意义