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布里斯班峰会将助G20峰会重拾形象

穆雷希伯特 国际战略研究中心高级研究员  2015年01月19日

【摘要】 G20峰会为奥巴马和各国首脑提供了一个商讨全球经济所面对的挑战的契机,这些挑战包括中国经济增速放缓、日本艰难的改革以及欧洲经济萎缩。今年会议可能的关注焦点包括:解决全球经济放缓的发展策略;将重心从政府带动型增长转向私人领域带动型增长。各国财长特别关注基建领域投资的增长,并呼吁政府降低私人领域投资公共项目的门槛。领导人们还将会讨论建立一个新的、透明度增加的、更加能够避免漏洞和限制避税天堂的企业税收制度的必要性。


在参加了在北京举行的APEC领导人峰会和在缅甸举行的东亚峰会之后,奥巴马总统将在澳大利亚布里斯班举行的G20峰会上结束自己11月中旬的亚太之旅。G20峰会为奥巴马和各国首脑提供了一个商讨全球经济所面对的挑战的契机,这些挑战包括中国经济增速放缓、日本艰难的改革以及欧洲经济萎缩。

此次会议主办国澳大利亚提供了一个使G20峰会重新取得关注以及在2008年全球经济危机之后重新取得重要地位的机会。澳大利亚财政部长乔·霍奇(Joe Hockey)在他10月8日在国际战略研究中心的演讲中说,“为了重新使G20焕发活力,会议的议程必须将精力放在取得具体成果以及制定一个宏伟而又可完成的目标上。”

媒体将关注在澳大利亚总理托尼·阿伯特(Tony Abbott)表示他将与俄罗斯领导人在MH17坠机事件上正面对抗(Shirt-front)之后,俄罗斯总统普京是否会在参加11月15至16日的峰会。(Shirt-fronting是澳式橄榄球术语,意思是将一名球员正面绊倒)。27名澳大利亚公民在坠机事件中身亡。普京同时也没有表示他将不参加这次峰会。

根据预期,G20各国领导人将会在峰会上讨论更广泛的全球危机,包括ISIS在叙利亚和伊拉克的挑衅行为以及有关西非埃博拉疫情的国际反应。

澳大利亚所关注的主题之一是解决全球经济放缓的发展策略。九月份在悉尼举行的G20财长会议达成协议,将采取新的措施使全球GDP到2018年增长两个百分点。每一个国家都要有各自的增长策略,各位财长还还报告说,大约有一千多份方案已经被提交(没有一份的细节被公开),其中80%是新的提案;如果这些方案得以实施,全球GDP将增长1.8个百分点。

各国外长同意将重心从政府带动型增长转向私人领域带动型增长。各国财长特别关注基建领域投资的增长,并呼吁政府降低私人领域投资公共项目的门槛。霍奇已经提出了一个尚无定义的概念,也就是建立一个澳大利亚运营的“基础设施中心”;然而,这种想法将如何与中国新成立的亚洲基础设施投资银行一起运作还不得而知。

澳大利亚洛维研究所(Lowy Institute)G20研究中心主任、前澳大利亚财政部高级官员麦克·卡拉汉(Mike Callaghan)在一份十月份的报告注呼吁G20领导人对加强压低关税壁垒的措施,包括全球经济危机最严重时期所引进的零关税壁垒。卡拉汉表示,如果领导人能够让世界贸易组织来监督他们执行这些措施的过程,G20的可信度将会被加强。

G20领导人们将可能会吹嘘他们在2008年经济危机之后全球经济复苏时所建立的更加有弹性的金融监管体系所取得的成就。卡拉汉向领导人呼吁,应当加强资本金要求,一步一步对那些“规模过大而有可能崩溃”的金融机构采取措施,并且应当采取措施降低金融衍生品市场的风险。

领导人们还将会讨论建立一个新的、透明度增加的、更加能够避免漏洞和限制避税天堂的企业税收制度的必要性。他们同时期待解决所谓的基础侵蚀和利润转移(base erosion and profit shifting,BEPS)的伎俩,这种伎俩可以使跨国公司将他们的利润转移到低税或免税的地区。今年早些时候,G20财长讨论将建立一个共同的通报标准,使其成为一个自动的税收信息交换平台。

G20领导人将无疑会向美国施压,要求美国同意国际货币基金组织于2010年在华盛顿达成的配额承诺。这项改革将会把国际货币基金组织的配额分配稍微的转向新兴经济体和发展中国家,如中国,但是这项提案被美国国会否决。

包括奥巴马在内的一些G20领导人可以寻求将气候变化的经济影响放在明年在巴黎举行的全球气候峰会议程之前。但是澳大利亚作为第一个否决国家碳排放税的国家,坚持认为气候变化不应出现在会议议程上,而是希望会议集中讨论优乐娱乐注册使用效率以及提高政府对化石燃料的补助。

经常有批评指出G20会议不能够形成切实可行的措施,而且会议成员没有一个权威的记录来让使各国服从领导人们达成的协议。的确,其中一个问题是,G20作为一个成员国从中国、印度到美国、日本的组织,它非常多元,而且成员国经常存在互相冲突的利益。G20并没有一个执行机制或是一个秘书处来监督各成员是否在执行已经达成协议的改革措施。

卡拉汉在他的报告中写道,“度过了全球金融危机之后的辉煌,G20的名誉已经在下滑。”“布里斯班峰会是一个扭转颓势的契机。”为了使峰会重新焕发活力,卡拉汉认为,澳大利亚必须保证此次峰会“能够形成一个‘引人注意的’成果,而且领导人们应当积极参与,将外交辞令减少到最小程度,并且注重措施的执行。”


 

 Brisbane G20 Summit Provides Opportunity to Rescue Grouping’s Slipping Image

 

Murray Hiebert

Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Pacific Partners Initiative, CSIS

 

President Barack Obama will end his trip to Asia in mid-November at the Group of 20 (G20) Leaders’ Summit in Brisbane, Australia, after attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ meeting in Beijing and the East Asia Summit in Myanmar. The G20 summit will give Obama and top world leaders a chance to discuss critical challenges facing the global economy, including China’s slowdown, the tardy pace of reform in Japan, and looming deflation in Europe.

 

The meeting will give its Australian hosts an opportunity to help the G20 regain the focus and clout it had at the height of the global financial crisis in 2008. Australia’s treasurer, Joe Hockey, said in a speech at CSIS on October 8 that “to reinvigorate the group, the agenda had to focus on achieving outcomes and uniting around an ambitious but deliverable target.”

 

Journalists will watch whether Russian president Vladimir Putin attends the November 15–16 summit after Australian prime minister Tony Abbott said he would “shirt-front” the Russian leader over the shooting down of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 by Russian-backed Ukrainian rebels. (Shirt-fronting, in Australian football, refers to tackling a player from the front). Twenty-seven Australians died in that crash. Putin has not indicated that he plans to skip the summit.

 

The G20 leaders are expected to devote time at the summit to discussing broader global crises, including the offensive by Islamic State fighters in Syria and Iraq and the international response to the Ebola epidemic in West Africa.

 

One of the key themes Australia is focusing on is developing strategies to tackle the global economic slowdown. The G20 finance ministers meeting in Sydney in September agreed to take new policy actions to generate an additional 2 percent of global GDP in 2018. Each country was called on to develop individual growth strategies, and the ministers reported that roughly 1,000 measures (none of which have been detailed publicly) had been proposed, of which 80 percent were new; together these were expected to raise global GDP by 1.8 percent.

 

The finance ministers agreed to pivot from government-led growth to growth spearheaded by the private sector. The ministers focused particularly on increased investment in infrastructure and called on governments to remove barriers to private investment in public works projects. Hockey has proposed a still-relatively undefined concept about establishing an “infrastructure hub” run by Australia; it is unclear how this idea will work alongside the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank launched by China.

 

Mike Callaghan, director of the G20 Studies Center at the Lowy Institute in Australia and former senior Treasury official, in an October report called on G20 leaders to bolster their pledges to roll back protectionist trade measures, including nontariff barriers, introduced at the height of the global economic crisis. Callaghan said the credibility of the G20 would be strengthened if its leaders called on the World Trade Organization to monitor their progress in lifting these measures.

 

The G20 leaders will likely trumpet their achievements in building a more resilient financial regulatory system in the wake of the 2008 global meltdown. Callaghan called on the leaders to adopt strengthened capital requirements, take steps to deal with financial institutions considered “too big to fail,” and launch measures to make derivatives markets less risky.

 

The leaders will discuss the need to develop a new system of corporate tax rules that will increase transparency, close loopholes, and restrict the use of tax havens. They are also expected to tackle so-called base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) tactics, under which multinationals move their profits to jurisdictions that collect low or no taxes. Early this year G20 finance ministers discussed launching a common reporting standard that would serve as an automatic exchange of tax information.

 

The G20 leaders will undoubtedly put pressure on the United States to ratify the International Monetary Fund (IMF) quota commitments to which Washington agreed in 2010. The reform would shift slightly more IMF quota shares to emerging and developing economies such as China, but it has been blocked by the U.S. Congress.

 

Some G20 leaders, including Obama, could seek to put a discussion of the economic impact of climate change on the agenda ahead of next year’s global climate summit in Paris. But Australia, which under Abbott became the first country to repeal a national carbon tax, has insisted climate change will not be on the agenda and instead wants to focus on energy efficiency and the lifting of subsidies on fossil fuels.

 

The G20 is often criticized for failing to come up with concrete measures, and its members have less than a sterling record in following through on actions that leaders have agreed on. One problem, of course, is that the G20, with its membership ranging from China and India to the United States and Japan, is very diverse and its members often have conflicting interests. The G20 does not have an enforcement mechanism or a secretariat to monitor whether members are implementing agreed-upon reforms.

 

“The G20’s reputation has been slipping since its high point in the aftermath of the global financial crisis,” Callaghan wrote in his report. “The Brisbane Summit is an opportunity to reverse that trend.” To reinvigorate the forum, Callaghan argued, Australia will need to ensure that the summit has “a ‘headline’ outcome; engaged leaders; a minimum of rhetoric; [and] a focus on implementation.”



 
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